Estimating the Outcome of a Battle

Let's just jump right in! No computer, no calculator, just pencil and paper! Here's a sample battle:

I attack with: 3Inf, 5Arm, 2Ftr, 1Bmr vs. Defender: 4Inf, 2Arm, 1Ftr

Step One: Breakout the numbers into two columns.
.Def | Att
..4i | 3i
..2a | 5a
..1f | 2f
.....| 1b

Step Two: Calculate the probable hits for the round.

Take each unit type and quickly determine the number of hits for that type. Then add up the total number of hits.

Attacker:
...........3inf hit @ 1 =..3 / 6 =...5 hits
....5arm + 2ftr hit @ 3 = 21 / 6 = 3.5 hits
...........1bmr hit @ 4 =..4 / 6 =...66 hits
......................Total hits = 4.66 (since I'm attacking 4 hits)

Defender:
....4inf + 2arm hit @ 2 = 12 / 6 = 2 hits
...........1ftr hit @ 4 =..4 / 6 =...66 hits
......................Total hits = 2.66 (since I'm attacking 3 hits)

I always round up in favor of my opponent and round down against myself.

Step Three: Write out the results.

....Def | Att
..0i.4i | 3i 0i
..2a.2a | 5a 5a
..1f.1f | 2f 2b
........| 1b 1b

Step Four: repeat the steps 2 & 3 until the battle is over.

Probable results rounded in favor of my opponent:
Attacker wins with 3arm, 2ftr, 1bmr.

By looking at the table we have created we can quickly estimate how close are actual results are coming to the predicted results. Using this method during a live game, it makes it easier to see if we are meeting our projections or if we should retreat. In an e-mail game, you can use the above numbers to give your GM special instructions for ending the battle early.

The same type of formulas apply to sea battles as well. Although subs can make this calculation a bit more tricky.

Once you go through the above process several times, you'll be able to almost look at the numbers and determine the outcome -- without going through labor of the long formulas.

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